Not yet, but it’s not for lack of trying. In 2012 third party groups spent ~1.49 billion dollars attempting to influence the election. This is a 154% increase from 2008, which predates the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling that dramatically increased outside spending.
With 118 million voters, this breaks down to $12.63 per vote. Note, that some outside spending may have been aimed at dissuading voters from voting, therefore decreasing the dollar per person spending. So who spent all this money, and was it worth it? Here is a table of the major super PACs and campaign fundraising organizations (based on info provided at the SunLight Foundation):
| 2012 External Group Election Spending | ||||||
| Name of Super PAC or Organization | Head (if applicable) | Political Lean | % Success Overall | % Winning | % Losing | Total Spent |
| Service Employees International Union (SEIU) | Mary Kay Henry | Mixed | 84.65% | 73.01% | 11.63% | $15,202,306 |
| Women Vote! | Stephanie Schriock | Liberal | 76.14% | 41.85% | 34.29% | $5,878,449 |
| Independence USA PAC | Mike Bloomberg | Liberal | 45.74% | 37.17% | 8.57% | $8,169,429 |
| Planned Parenthood Action Fund | Cecile Richards | Liberal | 97.82% | 26.51% | 71.31% | $6,886,468 |
| Freedomworks for America | Dick Armey | Conservative | 24.59% | 20.54% | 4.06% | $19,234,074 |
| Club for Growth Action | Chris Chocola | Conservative | 41.37% | 13.66% | 27.70% | $16,585,176 |
| League of Conservation Voters | Gene Karpinski | Liberal | 78.80% | 13.19% | 64.98% | $10,897,016 |
| SEIU Committee on Political Education (COPE) | Mary Kay Henry | Mixed | 74.94% | 12.78% | 62.71% | $14,594,501 |
| Patriot Majority USA | Craig Varoga | Liberal | 45.52% | 11.21% | 31.52% | $7,509,093 |
| NRA | David Keene | Conservative | 10.71% | 10.40% | 0.31% | $7,448,017 |
| Ending Spending Action Fund | J. Joe Ricketts | Conservative | 15.34% | 7.82% | 7.52% | $13,238,296 |
| Americans for Tax Reform | Grover Norquist | Conservative | 57.35% | 7.22% | 50.13% | $15,794,582 |
| Majority PAC | Susan McCue | Liberal | 87.86% | 6.04% | 81.82% | $37,477,541 |
| US Chamber of Commerce | Tom Donohue | Conservative | 6.90% | 2.49% | 4.41% | $32,676,075 |
| Americans for Responsible Leadership | Unclear | Conservative | 1.96% | 1.96% | 0.00% | $5,022,762 |
| Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee | Dem Senate (Patty Murray) | Liberal | 79.73% | 1.75% | 77.97% | $52,105,196 |
| American Federation of State, County, & Municipal Employees | Lee Saunders | Liberal | 44.60% | 1.46% | 43.15% | $12,696,401 |
| American Action Network | Norm Coleman | Conservative | 60.33% | 0.64% | 59.69% | $11,785,919 |
| Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee | Dem House (Steve Israel) | Liberal | 51.05% | 0.59% | 50.45% | $61,741,050 |
| NRA – Political Victory Fund | David Keene | Conservative | 0.82% | 0.43% | 0.39% | $11,787,523 |
| National Republican Congressional Committee | GOP House (Pete Sessions) | Conservative | 31.88% | 0.39% | 31.50% | $64,653,292 |
| House Majority PAC | Alixandria Lapp | Liberal | 54.38% | 0.13% | 54.25% | $30,752,440 |
| Congressional Leadership Fund | Norm Coleman | Conservative | 54.00% | 0.00% | 54.00% | $9,450,237 |
| National Republican Senatorial Committee | GOP Senate (Jerry Moran) | Conservative | 24.05% | 0.00% | 24.05% | $31,710,841 |
| Crossroads GPS | Karl Rove | Conservative | 14.40% | 0.00% | 14.40% | $70,709,963 |
| Now or Never PAC | Jason S.M. Smuth | Conservative | 14.30% | 0.00% | 14.30% | $7,760,174 |
| American Future Fund | Koch Brothers | Conservative | 5.57% | 0.00% | 5.57% | $23,959,072 |
| American Crossroads | Karl Rove | Conservative | 1.29% | 0.00% | 1.29% | $104,710,472 |
Eleven organizations spent a combined $328.3 million dollars and got less than 25% of the outcome they sought. The list include includes both of Karl Rove’s super PAC, the Koch Brothers, and both of the NRA’s money spending groups. Back in 2000 and 2004 Karl Rove was seen as a genius, in Wisconsin the Koch Brothers were seen as all powerful, and the NRA has generally been seen as an unstoppable force. This result brings those records into question.
What also stands out from the data is how few organizations had any success electing candidates they supported. The SEIU leads the way with 73% of the candidates they supported winning, following by Women Vote! with 41%. A few other organizations score in the 25% range, but a whole 15 of 31 had under 3% success.
Given the limited impact this spending had I wonder if the complete blanketing of the airwaves these PACs did (particularly in the swing states) with largely negative ads if voters similarly tuned it out. Some other reasons for the limited impact is that a) there are only so many hours in the day and commercial time slots to reach voters in, a b) super PACs have to pay much higher rates for TVs than traditional campaigns.
But what is more striking is the total amount of money spent in millions of dollars. (Data from opensecrets.com)
| Liberal | Conservative | Other | Total | % Increase (all elections) | % Increase (Presidential only) | |
| 2012 Spending | $451.4 | $1,007.8 | $31.7 | $1,490.9 | 211.06% | 154.77% |
| 2010 Spending | $203.1 | $260.7 | $15.5 | $479.3 | -18.10% | |
| 2008 Spending | $318.8 | $243.6 | $22.8 | $585.2 | 95.20% | 30.57% |
| 2006 Spending | $144.5 | $144.9 | $10.4 | $299.8 | -33.11% | |
| 2004 Spending | $279.3 | $158.6 | $10.3 | $448.2 |
Compared to the miniscule increase from 2004 to 2008 (30.57%), the increase from 2008 to 2012 is even more stark (154.77%). Further, the overall dollars from outside organizations has switched from being led by liberal organizations to being dominated by conservatives.
To think of all the things that could’ve been done with the money instead of this could make your head spin. But one thing it hasn’t done is buy an election, especially when it comes to electing new people.
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-Patrick
Awesome job, Patrick. We need more heroes like you, even though you’re not at the war front.
Thanks for reading!